Recently met up with transport and fleet operators, industry experts and auto financiers as part of ground checks to understand the current scenario in auto financing, theidle time of trucks, cost increases and the demand environment.We continue to remain optimistic on the current up cycle on the demand environment and reckon that the current commercial vehicle (CV) upcycle should last for another two years marked by policy changes, changing fleet operating dynamics, shift to higher tonnage vehicles creating a sustainable demand.Market to be rangebound, but these top 3 picks could return 15 30% in Samvat 2075Nifty seems heading towards 200 DMA; top 5 stocks could give double digit returns in short termMahindra Mahindra Financial ServicesMMFS continues to improve its market share across segments, while theremaining leader in M (30 35 percent)/Maruti (8 10 percent),especially in the rural side.Going forward, the incremental traction should be largely driven by ananticipated normal monsoon, contribution from the new branch network (addition of 100 branches in FY18), renewed infra activity and improving cash flows in troubled pockets.Against this backdrop, we reckon MMFS to maintain healthy 18 percent AUM growth over FY18 FY21. MMFS completely remain focused on rural penetration and positioning maintaining its market leadership.The loan growth buoyancy and cash flow uptick tailwinds aiding asset quality improvement should help deliver 2.5 2.7 percent ROA, 15 18 percent ROE and 30 40 percent earnings growth over FY19 FY20.Going ahead, with a pickup in infra activity and favorable monsoon outlook, and increasing penetration into rural/urban centres should aid AUM growth of 18 percent 20 percent over FY19 20E. With one third of liability getting repriced each year, better lending yields remaining stable (14 percent+), we believe SHTF should clock NIMs at 8.6 8.7 percent by FY20E.Moreover, the greater thrust upon customers’ proposed business model and cash flows improving coupled with anenhanced provision in place (PCR at 70 percent), the asset quality woes stand behind.Riding the cyclical recovery, we reckon CIFC to deliver robust 27 percent earnings CAGR over FY18 20E driven by strong AUM traction, imminent margins stability, enhanced operating efficiencies and capital sufficiency.Given the strong earnings momentum, we envisage RoE to rise to 22 percent levels by FY20E averaging at 20 percent over FY18 20E.
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